Tourism outlooks: Shoulder seasons grow, snow forecast optimistic

The Whitefish Sustainable Tourism Management Committee held a town hall on Oct. 16. Panelists discussed growing tourism in the summer and shoulder seasons before giving outlooks for winter.  

Historically, winter seasons with similar predictions as this year’s weak La Nina forecast have yielded positive outcomes for powder enthusiasts.  

Winter season-pass sales at Whitefish Mountain Resort are off of last year’s pace by about 1.2%, according to Nick Polumbus, president of Whitefish Mountain Resort. However, “last year was the eighth consecutive record year of season pass sales, so to be off by 1% to eight straight years of growth is just fine,” Polumbus said.  

Winter reservations are also looking light, but Polumbus “fully expects it to fill out. There's a hangover from a tough opening to the ski season last year, but if it snows, they will come.”  

As for how much snow will fall this winter, Bob Ambrose, Whitefish resident and weather forecaster for OpenSnow.com, said NOAA reports cooler than average temperatures equating with a La Nina forecast for the upcoming winter. 

“A typical La Nina is one degree Celsius lower than normal, and we’re sitting at -.5, so it’s looking to be a weak La Nina season this year,” he said. “We looked back 30 years and identified six years that parallel this year’s weak La Nina conditions.”  

They compared data from each year, taken March 31 from Stahl Peak, which is 35 miles north of the summit of Big Mountain summit and sits at 6,030 feet.  

Ambrose said that the median of those six weak La Nina years is 34.5 inches of SWE (snow water equivalent), coming out to about 95% of the 30-year normal.  

However, four of those six years were at least average or above average SWE. The six seasons include 2000-2001: 19.8” (54%), 2005-2006: 38.3” (105%), 2008-2009: 30.7” (84%), 2016-2017: 40.0” (110%), 2017-2018: 43.3” (119%), 2022-2023: 28.0” (77%).  

“I still remember the snow of that best year... and the good news is I’m an optimist. And the readings currently are similar to how they were sitting in 2016,” Ambrose said.  

GLACIER National Park was busier than ever this fall. In September the park tallied about 600,000 visitors, approximately 50,000 more than September the year before.  

“All month long, I was thinking it was just like August,” said Park Superintendent Dave Roemer. 

The changes to the park’s reservation system worked well, he said.  

“We weren't overwhelmed at St. Mary, and the changes at Apgar went well. People who wanted reservations in the evening were typically able to get them,” Roemer said. 

This summer, the amount of time that properties were booked in advance was greater in properties closer to the park, as opposed to accommodations in town, which often see more spontaneous plannings, reported Rob Spence, vice president and general manager for Pursuit – Glacier Park Collection, the hospitality group that owns Grouse Mountain Lodge. 

Edna White, marketing director for Averill Hospitality, which owns The Lodge at Whitefish Lake, The Firebrand Hotel and The Pine Lodge, said that they saw similar trends with most bookings coming either well in advance at 4-6 months prior to arrival or about 10 days ahead.  

“September and June have been just as busy as July and August. Even May and now in October we’re seeing growth. It’s really encouraging to see the shoulder season getting more and more compressed. I know as a local we sometimes feel a relief in shoulder seasons with less traffic, but for our local workers the growth is better...  to have a stable income,” White said.  

“We should also communicate to travelers ... that it’s not all about the outdoors. So if we have an amazing snow year, that’s great, but if we don’t, we have other things to experience,” White said.   

VISITORS have spent $61 million out of $105 million of total card spending in Whitefish year to date.  

“58 cents for every dollar spent in Whitefish so far in 2024 has been spent by nonresidents. June – 60 cents. July 67 cents, August 65 cents,” said Explore Whitefish Director Julie Mullins.  

That data is collected from Visa Destination Insights, which includes 68% of domestic card use. It does not include prepaid online sales, such as booking rentals in advance, nor does it include cash sales.  

For traditional hotel occupancy, for the full fiscal year, spanning July 1 2023 through July 2024, Whitefish came out at 54.2% occupancy. The national average was 65%. 

“Here we sit as one of the most desirable locations on the planet, and we’re below the national average,” Mullins said.  

Overall, Whitefish has about 1,000 hotel rooms spread over 20 properties. Kalispell has double with about 2,200 rooms on 30 properties, and Columbia Falls has about 500 rooms with 10 properties.  

Notably, a new property called the Larch House is being constructed behind the VFW in downtown Whitefish at 304 East 1st Street. The luxury hotel is scheduled to open in summer of 2025, adding 38 more rooms. 

Short-term rentals, like Airbnb, had 58% occupancy year to date. The average rate of stay is four to six nights, while in traditional hotel lodging it is less than two nights, which Mullins attributes to changes in tourism management.  

“Airbnb and VRBO were not a thing 10 years ago. It’s completely disrupted our hotels and housing,” Mullins said.  

“As long as people are coming, people are going to open short-term rentals. The question is, how do we manage that through affordable housing initiatives?” Mullins asked. 

Glacier Park International Airport more than doubled in August in the last 10 years. In August 2014, the airport reported 37,111 boarding passengers, while August 2024 had 78,001.