The major problem of low growth estimation

On Nov. 21, 2024, the Whitefish Community Development Board reviewed the draft demographics section for Whitefish’s ongoing Growth Policy update - Vision Whitefish 2045. Part of this draft provides an estimate of expected population growth through 2045, which will directly influence updates to Whitefish’s zoning map following the completion of the new Growth Policy. Make no mistake - this population projection has no impact on how many people might actually move to Whitefish over the next 20 years. We are unlikely to be right. We can’t predict the future.  

However, this projection is incredibly important and directly linked to HOW Whitefish will grow over the next 20 years. The model being used for the current projection estimates yearly growth below 1%, significantly below Whitefish’s historical average. This low estimate means that Whitefish’s zoning will not be adjusted to meet current and future demands. You might say to yourself, “I like Whitefish fine the way it is. I don’t want many more people to move here.” That’s a fair way to feel, however, I’ll ask - what do you like about Whitefish? Do you like the small town feel? The community and neighborly vibes? The relative ease of getting around in a vehicle, by foot, or by bike? Something else entirely? It’s worth contemplating these questions.  

There is a major problem with a low estimation:  

A low estimate ensures that future growth will happen via annexation of the city’s outlying areas. This means continued housing unaffordability, loss of community through accelerated displacement, increased traffic congestion, and the loss of Whitefish’s outlying agricultural lands and open spaces.  

Reject this low estimation that serves no purpose but to make certain portions of the community feel better in the short-term. Ask Whitefish’s Community Development Board to use a model that errs on overestimating future population growth within the current city boundaries to maintain Whitefish’s small-town feel, where neighbors know each other, kids can walk to school, and people can choose not to hop into their car to get downtown. This is our only chance to get this right - to prepare for a future that maintains our community’s values instead of opting for the path of least resistance.  

Nathan Dugan is the President of Shelter WF, a housing policy organization based in Whitefish.