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If past seasons are any indication of future events, the Northern Rockies have a 50-50 chance of an active fire season in 2018.

The ocean currents in the Pacific, which often dictate the weather in West are set to shift from a la Nina pattern to a neutral state this summer.

That has happened in the past, Rick Connell fire management officer for the Flathead National Forest said in a meeting with media outlets on Friday. In about half the years, it’s meant an active fire season, the other half have been duds.

But the shift to a neutral ocean current state typically means a warmer and drier summer.

Last year was a historic fire year, with 1.55 million acres burning across the Northern Rockies, which includes Montana, North Dakota and Northern Idaho.

This June has been different from last June, however, with cooler and slightly wetter weather. This year June saw about 1.77 inches of rain compared to 1.48 inches last year, but it’s been cloudy and cooler overall. The normal for June is 2.49 inches.

It doesn’t take much to turn the tide. A couple weeks of hot weather dry out the fine fuels, such as grasses and shrubs quickly and when the energy release component gets above the 90th percentile, the odds of a wildfire grow significantly.

The energy release component is a way fire managers measure the dryness of fuels, Connell noted.

Rains in July and August often dictate how a fire season will pan out.

By July 3 last year, there were already large fires burning in eastern Montana and the largest local fire, the Rice Ridge Fire, started July 24.

Last July Kalispell saw .07 inches of rain. August saw .16 inches of rain. Virtually no rain and hot weather equates to great wildfire potential.

Since 1988, the region overall has been in an active fire regime. Connell notes that some experts point to climate change, drought and other sources. Connell points to the life cycles of the trees themselves. In the late 1880s and early 1900s, there was also an active fire cycle in the Northern Rockies, including 1910, when 3 million acres burned across the region, including more than 400,000 acres in the Flathead.

But from the 1940s to ‘88, fires were far less common. Part of it may have been the 10 a.m. rule, a Forest Service policy that dictated that wildland fires be put out by 10 a.m.

But Connell noted that it takes 50 to 150 years for a forest to grow back after a fire. Northern Rockies fire regimes correspond with growth cycles, he said. We don’t have a lot of brush like other parts of the west that can burn over and over again.

Not all dry years result in big fire years, either. In the year 2000, for example, it was very dry and while the Bitterroot was racked with blazes, the Flathead was relatively unscathed.

Still, quite a bit of the local landscape has burned since 1981.

According to statistics recently compiled by Jim Flint, a fire management officer with the Spotted Bear Ranger District, the Glacier View, Hungry Horse, Swan Lake and Spotted Bear Ranger Districts of the Flathead National Forest, the Rocky Mountain and Lincoln Ranger Districts of the Helena and Lewis and Clark National Forests, the Seeley Lake Ranger District of the Lolo National Forest, and Glacier National Park have seen fires on 1,615,605 acres.

Of that, 1,449,720 acres that have burned once; 154,894 acres have burned twice, 10,946 acres that have burned three times; and 45 acres have burned four times.

Of those acres, 617,382 acres were in the Bob Marshall Wilderness complex. The Wilderness Complex is about 1.5 million acres in size.

In the Bob, 507,543 acres have burned once; 102,118 acres have burned twice; 7,678 acres have burned three times; and 43 acres have burned four times.

The acreage analysis was done by Heather Weldon of the Spotted Bear Ranger District.

People also need to play a big role in preventing wildfires, officials noted.

Since 1990, about 2,200 homes have been built in medium to high fire danger zones in the Flathead Valley, Lincoln Chute fire service manager for Flathead County said. He said it’s important for homeowners in the wildland-urban interface to take precautions, to reduce the risk of a fire taking their house.

The state Department of Natural Resources, the county and the Forest Service all have assistance available to homeowners and grants are often available.

Connell noted that there is no “zero risk” in a wildland firefighter’s job. But as a Type II incident commander who has overseen fire operations on huge blazes across the West, there’s risks they simply won’t take.

“We’re not willing to put firefighters in a place where there’s a high probability of a bad outcome,” he cautioned.

Homeowners can learn more about how to protect their home and structures from wildfires at: http://dnrc.mt.gov/divisions/forestry/forestry-assistance/forest-stewardship/western-wildland-urban-interface-grant-program