School enrollment forecast to remain steady

Young families moving into Whitefish should help keep local school enrollment steady over the next decade.

The forecast comes from a new demographic study complied for Whitefish School District as it plans for future growth and explores options to rebuild Muldown Elementary.

According to the preliminary study by McKibben Demographics, district enrollment is expected to increase by 6.7 percent, or 113 students, between now and 2020. A slight dip is then predicted between 2021 and 2025.

At a peak in 2021, the study shows 1,801 students will be enrolled kindergarten through grade 12. By 2025, that number is expected to decline by 55 students.

Total district enrollment last school year was 1,676.

“What [the study] tells us is that things will remain stable,” said Whitefish Superintendent Heather Davis Schmidt.

“There’s not going to be a significant decline, but there’s not going to be a significant increase, either.”

Davis Schmidt points out that Whitefish has seen unprecedented growth at the elementary level recently, which spurred the district to take a closer look at projections.

“Typically, enrollment goes down over the course of a school year,” Davis Schmidt said. “But we actually had an increase of 30 kids at Muldown — that’s 5 percent of the total enrollment.”

She notes that Whitefish saw the largest enrollment increase valley-wide last school year, taking on an additional 100 students grades K-12.

“Is this the kind of growth we can anticipate ongoing or is it a roller-coaster that’s not sustained over time?” Davis Schmidt said. “We needed a longterm [enrollment] outlook based on research, opposed to anecdotal beliefs about what was going on.”

Looking at Muldown Elementary, enrollment in those grades is forecast to slightly decline beginning in 2019, falling from 648 students now to 606 in 2025.

High school enrollment, however, is expected to jump over the next 10 years by 18.8 percent. A peak is predicted in 2023 when 595 students are expected to be enrolled. Last school year there were 489 students enrolled at the high school.

The study suggests a main factor contributing to the forecast enrollment increase is a stable level of young families moving into the district. Most people moving here are adults between 25 and 39, and young children between newborn and 9 years old — young adults with children.

The local 18 to 24-year-old population, however, generally is moving away, going to college or taking jobs in more urban areas. This age group represents the largest of the district’s out migration, which is expected to continue.

Another factor contributing to the enrollment forecasts are fertility rates in the district — the average number of births a woman will have in her lifetime. Whitefish has a fertility rate of 1.9 percent, which is lower than the 2.1 percent replacement level, the study notes.

These factors mean the district will rely on young families moving into the area to maintain enrollment levels.

Whitefish’s housing market also contributes to enrollment. With limited new home construction in the district, the study forecasts that the rate and magnitude of existing home sales will become a dominant factor affecting the city’s population and school enrollment.

The demographic analysis is a three-year process and forecasts could shift slightly as new information is unveiled, said Davis Schmidt.

“This is a first look,” she said.

The Muldown Project Task Force will discuss the study at their next meeting Sept. 8 at 7 p.m. at Muldown.

“We’ll be able to use this information and feel comfortable as we move forward,” Davis Schmidt said.