El Nino spells warm temps, less snowfall...maybe

Forecast predictions for the upcoming winter aren’t looking favorable for eager skiers or needed drought relief, but keep that parka and snow shovel handy just in case.

National Weather Service meteorologist Bob Nester says conditions are ripe for one of the strongest El Nino weather events on record — a weather phenomenon characterized by unusually warm ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific. Nester gave a long-term forecast briefing last week that focused on potential impacts from the strong El Nino.

Generally, an El Nino means below average snowfall and warm temperatures in the Northern Rockies, he said. During the most recent strong event in 1997-98, Kalispell received only 40 percent of its average snow total. Typically, snowfall in western Montana is 15-30 percent below normal during an El Nino.

Still, Nester reassures that an El Nino doesn’t mean it won’t still feel like winter occasionally.

“The takeaway is, we could still get snow storms, and we will get a cold outbreak from time to time, it will just be less frequent,” Nester said.

In fact, the El Nino in 1965-66 bucked all the trends with Kalispell receiving 102 percent of its typical snowfall, a year that Nester described as “an outlier.”

Snow already is blanketing mountain ranges and some valleys across the state.

Big Sky Resort in southwest Montana fired up their chair lifts last Saturday after getting more than 2 feet of snow on the upper reaches of Lone Peak.

The slopes at Whitefish Mountain Resort are starting to turn white, as well, with opening day less than a month away. The latest storm brought about 15 inches of new snow to the summit of Big Mountain.

The village area picked up about 3 inches of new snow and resort officials are planning to fire up snowmaking machines as conditions allow.

Opening day is Dec. 5 — depending on conditions.