Gas prices top $4 per gallon

How that will affect summer tourism is not entirely clear

By RICHARD HANNERS / Whitefish Pilot

The average price for regular gasoline topped $4 a gallon for the first time in U.S. history last week. But while some industry pundits forecasted $5 a gallon prices by the Fourth of July, the federal Energy Department says prices should peak at $4.15 a gallon in August and perhaps average $3.92 a gallon through 2009.

With oil prices nearing $140 a barrel last week, gasoline prices have sharply climbed from $3.69 a gallon one month ago. Competition for oil in the global market, along with speculation, is blamed for the sharp rise in oil prices, which Saudi Arabian officials say is unwarranted.

The American Automobile Association reported in May that 74 percent of Americans said they will change their driving habits and drive less — but is that for commuting and shopping or long-distance travel to places like Montana?

In May, before gas prices broke the $4 mark, AAA projected that Memorial Day holiday travel would drop by about 0.9 percent. About 83 percent of holiday travelers were expected to use automobiles, down by about 1 percent, which AAA blamed on the "financial pinch" from higher gas prices.

Higher gas prices didn't impact traveler numbers in Montana last year, according to the University of Montana's Institute of Tourism and Recre-ation Research.

The number of nonresident travelers in Montana has increased by about 2 percent a year for the past decade, the Institute's Norma Nickerson and Melissa Bruns-Dubois recently reported. Fuel prices didn't impact air travel either — Montana airports reported a 3.4 percent increase in nonresident travelers in 2007.

"Even when crude oil prices closed in on the $100 per barrel mark in 2007, Americans were still traveling," the researchers said.

Nickerson and Bruns-Dubois noted a 4 percent increase last year in Canadian travelers and a 7 percent increase by overseas travelers. They attributed that to the weaker U.S. dollar in relation to the loonie and the euro.

Both Yellowstone and Glacier national parks had banner years in 2007, they reported. The number of visitors at Yellowstone increased by 10 percent to 3.15 million, while Glacier Park posted more than 2 million visitors, the highest number in 13 years.

The number of motel rooms booked in Montana last year was 4.2 percent higher than in 2006. Other Rocky Mountain states posted a 1 percent increase in motel rooms sold, the researchers said.

Tourist-industry leaders have remained optimistic about this year despite high gas prices, pointing out that travelers will not change plans because of several hundred dollars in additional gasoline costs.

According to an Institute of Tourism and Recreation Research survey of nonresident travelers in 2005, the majority of nonresident travel expenditures went to gasoline, hotels and dining.

Adjusted to 2007 dollars, visitors to Glacier Park spent on average 5.7 nights in Montana at $164 per day. About 27 percent of that went to gasoline.

Gasoline prices have climbed significantly since 2005, but so has food and lodging. As a result, the state's tourism agency is promoting Montana's affordability.

"For people wanting to travel for less, Montana is seen as an affordable destination," said Betsy Baumgart, administrator of Montana Promotions Division.

Baumgart notes that AAA recently ranked Montana ninth out of 50 states in affordability for family travel, based on lodging and meal expenses.

She also compared the $30-$50 it costs a family to access Glacier and Yellowstone parks to the $300 a day a typical family of four spends at DisneyWorld.

Travel to the Glacier Park area and the Flathead has been down so far in April and May, but that is probably due to adverse weather. The tourist industry reports summer-long bookings at RV campgrounds and hotels in the Flathead are slightly higher than last year

On the other hand, according to AAA's Helena spokesperson, Denice Harris, overall economic conditions may affect Americans' travel plans, even if gas prices by themselves are not a deterrent.